British security analyst Ed Arnold from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has issued a stark warning: a conventional military conflict between NATO and Russia could erupt within the next two years.

In an interview with the German press agency, Arnold stated that Western countries, particularly Germany, must significantly boost their defense capabilities by 2027 in order to deter Russian aggression.

Production of military systems

According to Arnold, Germany should focus on rapidly increasing the production of proven military systems such as the Taurus cruise missile, the Leopard 2 A8 battle tank, and the Boxer armored transport vehicle. He also recommended ramping up the deployment of effective air defense systems like IRIS-T SLM and the Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun, which could be jointly manufactured with NATO allies. These points were detailed in a comprehensive feature published by Die Welt on April 20.

Flashpoint for escalation

One of the key concerns raised by Arnold is the Suwalki Gap, a narrow corridor between Poland and Lithuania that connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO. In an interview cited by the BILD newspaper, Arnold warned that this region is particularly vulnerable to Russian provocation and could serve as a flashpoint for escalation. Any such confrontation, he noted, could quickly spiral into a broader military conflict across Europe.

Battle-proven systems

Arnold also emphasized that the West should shift its focus from sophisticated, slow-to-deploy high-tech weaponry to mass availability of reliable and battle-proven systems. “Quantity matters,” he said, adding that the NATO alliance needs “more equipment, not just innovation.”

In addition, the British expert encouraged a strategic shift away from dependency on U.S. weapons systems. As reported by Welt, he argued that in the long term, European defense forces should look to replace U.S.-made systems such as the F-35 fighter jet and Patriot missile defense with European-built alternatives to ensure greater autonomy in defense policy.

Arnold’s warning comes amid growing geopolitical uncertainty in Europe and beyond. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, increasingly hostile rhetoric from Moscow, and rising global tensions – including those in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region – European countries are under renewed pressure to strengthen their military preparedness. As Arnold puts it, “There is no more time for symbolic politics – we need real, visible action.”

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APA