Tensions are running high in Eastern Europe: Russia and its loyal ally Belarus have launched their massive military exercises, “Sapad 2025” (West 2025). Poland, a NATO member with a direct border with Belarus, is on high alert, closing border crossings and blocking its airspace. This move triggered an angry reaction in Moscow – sparks are flying, and accusations of “escalation” are in the air.

Fiery accusation from Moscow: “Confrontational steps!”

The Kremlin is not holding back. As reported by various media outlets, including n-tv, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova launched a verbal counterattack. She described Poland’s border closure as a “confrontational step” that only served to “justify further escalation of tensions in the center of Europe.” In a sharp post on Telegram, she accused the Polish government of deliberately inflaming the situation.

These war games, which take place every four years, have a grim history. The last exercise, Sapad 2021, is now known as an ominous prelude to war. Russia used the maneuver at the time to position heavy military equipment and troops for the invasion of Ukraine just a few months later, in February 2022. An oppressive incident that has put the entire NATO on high alert.

Poland sounds the alarm, NATO responds

Warsaw is leaving nothing to chance. Citing the tense situation and the recent violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones, the country has closed its border with Belarus for the duration of the maneuvers. This is a dramatic step that reflects deep concern about Russia’s intentions. According to Handelsblatt, Poland is not alone in its fears. Neighboring Latvia has also closed its adjacent airspace.

The West’s response was swift and unanimous. In a show of solidarity, NATO allies are flexing their muscles. France is sending three of its modern Rafale fighter jets to protect Polish airspace. Germany is extending and doubling its “air policing” mission over Poland and increasing the number of Eurofighters deployed. The clear message to Moscow is: NATO stands together and will defend every inch of its territory.

A high-risk game of provocation

Military experts are watching the Sapad 2025 exercise with eagle eyes. With an estimated 13,000 soldiers in Belarus and another 30,000 on Russian territory, the scale is considerable. Many see these maneuvers not just as an exercise, but as a deliberate provocation. Security expert Nico Lange told WELT: “Russia is using this maneuver to provoke.”

The recent incident in which Russian drones penetrated deep into Polish territory—some of which were shot down—has further fueled fears. The incident was described by the foreign ministers of Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania as a “deliberate and unprecedented provocation.” While the Kremlin downplays the drone incident and denies any hostile intent, Western leaders are not convinced. The situation remains a powder keg, and the world is watching NATO’s eastern flank with bated breath to see what happens next.

Image: APA