No peace in sight? Before agreeing to a ceasefire, Vladimir Putin wants to occupy three more cities to “create buffer zones that protect Russian regions.”

Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernigov in northern Ukraine are to be occupied by Russian troops. The government in Kyiv is unlikely to agree to this.

In a meeting with representatives of the Kursk region on May 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin reinforced Russia’s claim to the Ukrainian city of Sumy and possibly the entire region of the same name. This is according to a recent report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The move is seen as part of a strategy to annex further Ukrainian territories, possibly through future negotiations.

In addition, the Kremlin is said to be planning the occupation of Kharkiv and Chernigov (north of Kyiv) – only with the occupation of these cities will a sufficiently large buffer zone be created to “comprehensively protect” Russian territory.

The city of Sumy, only 25 kilometers from the Russian border, is of great strategic importance to Moscow. A Russian-controlled buffer zone around the city would make it much more difficult for Ukraine to carry out artillery or drone attacks on Russian territory.

At the meeting with Putin, the head of the Glushkovo border district administration, Pavel Solotarev, openly proposed creating such a zone within Ukraine. When Putin asked how deep this zone should extend, Solotarev replied, “At least as far as Sumy,” hinting that Russia should expand beyond that. The acting governor of the Kursk region, Alexander Khinshtein, also spoke out in favor of the move on Telegram. He justified this with his family roots in Sumy: “This land is not foreign to us.”

Political theater or territorial intent?

The ISW assesses the meeting as a deliberate staging to portray Putin as an active and determined warlord – and to distract from military failures. During the negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 16, the Russian side also threatened to conquer the entire Sumy region.

However, it is doubtful whether Russia currently has the military capacity to actually take Sumy. Before the war, the city had a population of around 256,000 – a size that Russian troops have not been able to successfully capture since the invasion began in 2022. Even the much smaller city of Lysychansk fell only after months of fighting.

Ukrainian analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reports that the 18th and 72nd motorized rifle divisions and the 83rd airborne brigade are currently active in the direction of Sumy. In addition, up to five mobilized regiments are said to be on site. Nevertheless, the ISW considers these forces insufficient for a large-scale attack.

Ukrainian doubts about Russian offensive

From the Ukrainian perspective, an attack on Sumy also seems unlikely at present. Government representatives have repeatedly stated that such an advance would entail considerable losses for Russia and would be protracted.

However, back in April, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky stated that Russia had launched a new offensive in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The aim was to establish a buffer zone along the northern border, which could also extend to the Chernihiv region.

Image:
APA